Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through February 21, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010, Officially Canceled
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Better Off Ted 0.42
Ugly Betty (Fri) (S), (F), (P) 0.46
Scrubs (P) 0.56
The Deep End 0.56
Ugly Betty (Wed) (S), (P) 0.58
Hank 0.54*
the forgotten 0.62
Eastwick 0.62
The Middle 0.76
Castle (P) 0.82
FlashForward (P) 1.02
Cougar Town (P) 1.02
Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) 1.14
Private Practice (P) 1.16
Modern Family 1.19
V 1.41
Grey’s Anatomy (P) 1.65
Desperate Housewives (P) 1.69
Lost (final season) 1.85

I continue to like Castle’s renewal chances, its relative ratings improved enough from the beginning of the year to put it in a good position to return for next season.

There are just two shows on ABC’s “bubble” at this point.

FlashForward ratings need to bounce back from its fall lows (2.1 adults 18-49 rating) when it returns in March or it will be canceled.

V’s future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Because its fall ratings are effectively meaningless now, I’ve colored the show orange in the table to indicate that its future is uncertain, based only on its spring ratings.

The Deep End will certainly be canceled.

Who is Steve McPherson kidding about Scrubs and Better Off Ted? There is a very tiny possibility that Scrubs comes back just to generate more episodes for syndication. There is no such possibility for Ted.

Ugly Betty has been officially canceled. Hank and Eastwick are already canceled, and the forgotten’s cancellation is a certainty. Lost is in its final season.

For shows in the Some Danger category only, I am including short term Index indicators for  shows either with either improving :mrgreen: or deteriorating 😳 Indexes, based on recent averages instead of season to date.

I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.

This is a breakdown of ABC scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:


The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating. If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with a well below average Index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.

What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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