Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows for the 2010-11 season (includes results through April 4, 2010):

  • Likely To Be Canceled By May, 2010; Officially Canceled
  • Some Danger Of Being Canceled By May, 2010
  • Likely to Be Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
  • Renewed For The 2010-11 Season
Program Renew/ Cancel Index
Miami Medical (F) 0.54
Numb3rs (F), (P) 0.54
Three Rivers (P) .55*
Medium (F), (P) 0.59
New Adventures of Old Christine (S) 0.61
Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) 0.63
Gary Unmarried 0.66
Cold Case (P) 0.68
The Good Wife (P) 0.82
Accidentally On Purpose (P) 0.88
CSI:NY (P) 0.96
How I Met Your Mother (S) 1.03
Criminal Minds (P) 1.06
Rules Of Engagement 1.07
NCIS: Los Angeles (P) 1.07
The Mentalist 1.09
CSI (P) 1.10
CSI: Miami (P) 1.10
NCIS (P) 1.26
Two And A Half Men 1.49
Big Bang Theory 1.56

Normally, a 1.6 adults 18-49 rating for the Miami Medical premiere (even on a Friday) would have me marking it red for certain cancellation, but it did do so much better than both Ghost Whisperer and Medium (which were both down sharply) on the night, that I want to wait at least another week before putting a toe tag on it.

Accidentally On Purpose will air its first new Wednesday episode this week (it ran a repeat last week and did a tenth of a ratings point better than a repeat of Old Christine). How it does on Wednesdays could determine its fate. However, my guess based on the fate of Worst Week last season, is that it has a ratings hill to climb in order to survive.

CBS’ record of few total failures means that shows with mediocre ratings are in danger because the network will want to premiere several hours of new shows next fall. The New Adventures of Old Christine, Gary Unmarried, Accidentally On Purpose, and Medium could all go either way depending on how CBS feels about its pilots, and/or its interest in continuing to be battered on Wednesday for a second comedy block.

While the numbers for Numb3rs have placed it in danger of cancellation from the beginning of the season, all the press surrounding its season finale leads me to believe that CBS will be canceling the show.

Cold Case is certain to be canceled. We have a few readers who trot out their laments every time it gets mentioned in one of our posts. While it’s nice to have a hobby, may I suggest one that’s more fulfilling, like knitting.

* I have frozen the Index for Three Rivers at the point it was removed from the CBS schedule.

I’ve added a new category, Renewed For The 2010-11 Season, for shows who’s renewal has already been announced for the next season. It may take a while to get all the past announcements noted, let me know what I have missed, yet be patient.

This is a breakdown of CBS scripted shows and their renewal and cancellation prospects. Here are links to the other networks:


The Renew/Cancel Index is a show’s Season To Date adults 18-49 rating divided by its network’s Season to Date average 18-49 rating (in CBS’s case I have removed the season effect of the week including the Super Bowl for the calculation). If a show’s season to date 18-49 ratings average equalled its network’s 18-49 average, the show would have an Index of 1.00. Without special factors, scripted shows that were more than 10% below their network’s average are typically canceled by the end of the broadcast primetime season.

Factors that could cause a show to be renewed with well below average index:

  • (F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays have been renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
  • (S) – Syndication: Shows nearing syndication (66-88 episodes), often have economic factors that trump ratings leading to renewal.
  • (T) – Third Party: Shows that have a portion of their cost underwritten by a 3rd party can be renewed with substantially lower ratings.
  • (P) – Produced by the network’s production company – For shows on the bubble, being produced by the network’s corporate production company can be a survival advantage. For real losers, it’s unlikely to help.

What’s the History of the Index and How Did It Do In the Past? Check out the results from the 2007-8 season and the 2008-9 season.

Nielsen TV Ratings Data: ©2010 The Nielsen Company. All Rights Reserved. All ratings used are Live+Same Day viewing.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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