Short term (4 week) ratings trends indicate the renewal prospects for Castle, The Good Wife, Heroes, Parks & Recreation and Law & Order have improved.

Since I am keeping individual show episode ratings this season (unlike in past years when I just relied on Nielsen averages), I’d been meaning to look at short term ratings trends explicitly at some point (instead of just eyeballing them). I meant to start including them in the regular posts this week, but the Nielsen power outage delay made that impractical. However, in preparation for next weeks posts, I set up the spreadsheet and did the calculations for this week, so I figured I would post them (not color coded).

Remember that on a season average basis, an Index of below 0.92 has in the past indicated a scripted show is in danger of cancellation. On a short term Index basis, I haven’t checked the history. And to be honest, there’s likely more in these numbers than I’ve drawn out from my cursory scan, but shows with 4 week Indexes over their season Indexes would seem to have improving chances. Whether that turns out to be the case, we shall see.


Program Renew/ Cancel Index 4 Week Renew/ Cancel Index
Ugly Betty (S), (F), (P) 0.39 0.42
Hank 0.52 0.50
Eastwick 0.63 0.58
the forgotten 0.66 0.69
The Middle 0.69 0.72
Castle (P) 0.75 0.86
FlashForward (P) 1.00 0.98
Brothers & Sisters (S), (P) 1.01 1.13
Cougar Town (P) 1.10 1.08
Modern Family 1.18 1.26
Private Practice (P) 1.23 1.30
V 1.45 1.60
Desperate Housewives (P) 1.53 1.70
Grey’s Anatomy (P) 1.79 1.88


Program Renew/ Cancel Index 4 Week Renew/ Cancel Index
Numb3rs (F), (P) 0.54 0.65
Three Rivers (P) 0.55 0.64
Cold Case (P) 0.60 0.68
New Adventures of Old Christine (S) 0.62 0.71
Medium (F), (P) 0.62 0.73
Ghost Whisperer (F), (S) 0.63 0.74
Gary Unmarried 0.67 0.76
The Good Wife (P) 0.86 0.94
Accidentally On Purpose (P) 0.92 1.06
CSI:NY (P) 0.98 1.09
How I Met Your Mother (S) 1.06 1.21
The Mentalist 1.09 1.26
CSI (P) 1.11 1.22
Criminal Minds (P) 1.12 1.22
NCIS: Los Angeles (P) 1.13 1.23
CSI: Miami (P) 1.21 1.35
NCIS (P) 1.37 1.55
Two And A Half Men 1.40 1.60
Big Bang Theory 1.49 1.72


Program Renew/ Cancel Index 4 Week Renew/ Cancel Index
The Beautiful Life: TBL (P) 0.49*
Melrose Place (P) 0.60 0.62
90210 (P) 0.84 0.93
Smallville (F), (P) 0.89 1.10
Gossip Girl (P) 0.95 1.10
One Tree Hill (P) 0.96 1.12
Supernatural (S), (P) 0.99 1.12
Vampire Diaries (P) 1.41 1.60


Program Renew/ Cancel Index 4 Week Renew/ Cancel Index
Law & Order (F), (P) 0.54 0.63
Trauma (P) 0.69 0.75
Mercy (P) 0.71 0.71
Parks & Recreation (P) 0.75 0.85
Community 0.83 0.85
Heroes (P) 0.92 0.99
Law & Order: SVU (P) 0.97 1.09
30 Rock (P) 1.14 1.25
The Office (P) 1.56 1.71

The middle column Renew / Cancel Index numbers are calculated the same as they always have been. A show’s season average adults 18-49 rating divided by its networks season average adults 18-49 rating. The 4 week Indexes divide a show’s 4 week running 18-49 ratings average by the networks running 4 week ratings average. The number of repeats during a short period can cause misleading results. Not sure if I can do something simple to show that or not.

Note that the Fox numbers for the 4 week average would have been entirely useless because few regular shows aired more than once or twice, and the averages were heavily skewed by baseball, so I didn’t include them at all. Next week I may figure out something special for Fox for the next few weeks.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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