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reading bear

Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from September 15-December 14, 2014):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Manhattan Love Story* canceled 0.48
Cristela (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.53
Selfie* canceled 0.53
Forever 😳 0.63
Revenge 😐 😐 😐 0.64
Last Man Standing (F) 😐 😐 😐 0.64
Resurrection 😳 0.73
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.73
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.87
Castle  🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.87
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.02
The Goldbergs :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.12
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
Grey’s Anatomy  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.30
black-ish :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.32
How To Get Away With Murder :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.56
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.61
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.74

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ABC Tuesday remains very, very good to the bear. Easily predicted Selfie and Manhattan Love Story were early cancellations of the season. Perhaps not wanting to repeat the serial blood bath at 10pm, ABC picked up Forever for 22 episodes, but there is no question that the bear will dine on it this spring.

On Sunday, the sharp decline in Resurrection ratings was a bit unusual for a second season show. It went from reasonably safe to doomed in a matter of weeks. The bear is thinking that he might catch Revenge as well, but he’s not making any prediction changes for it until 2015.

Although given a full season, the bear has had Cristela as a “toss up” most of the season, but its recent ratings make that seem particularly generous now, the bear has plenty of time for a prediction downgrade in the New Year. Also a “toss up”, the bear’s more positively inclined towards Last Man Standing’s prospects.

Previous weeks:

How is Nashville already certain to be renewed? Read this.

While we wait for the return of Bubble Watch, here are some ABC notes from Tom Shaw:

Fresh Off the Boat finally got a timeslot, as ABC continues to dribble out their Spring schedule. With the Wednesday comedies having 24 episode orders and Cristela given a (now questionable) backorder, the only spot left was Tuesday@8. ABC is at least attempting to give Boat a shot though, premiering the show in the Wednesday block during February sweeps. Whether any new comedy can survive in that hour is another story.

(Interestingly, we still don’t know what Boat is paired with! A cynic would wonder if “temporary” repeats would allow ABC to switch Boat to twice a week if the ratings are middling; a schedule-minded observer would wonder if ABC will try to get comparison data by running, say, The Middle repeats in the hour. I’d say it is a bit of both.)

Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.


😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015

The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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