Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2011-12 season in May, 2012. (includes results through October 23, 2011):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Body Of Proof||😥 😥||0.66|
|Pan Am||😥 😥||0.76|
|Private Practice||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|Man Up||😐 😐 😐||0.82|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.91|
|Revenge||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.99|
|Desperate Housewives||final season||1.00|
|Last Man Standing||1.14|
|Once Upon A Time||1.36|
Which ABC show am I describing?
- Aging, likely increasingly expensive, drama airing behind (some would say propped up by) one of the network’s top shows.
- Ratings skating near the bottom of the “toss up” for renewal range.
- Prospects for another season likely to go right down to the wire.
I was describing last season’s Renew / Cancel ride for the now canceled Brothers & Sisters, but this season Private Practice seems to be following the same script. Recall that the conventional wisdom was that a deal for a final shortened Brothers & Sisters season was attempted, but ultimately fell apart. I’d expect the same attempt for Private Practice if its ratings stay where they are, and we’ll have to await the outcome.
Revenge seems to be stabilizing at a ratings level that makes it likely to be renewed come May.
Pan Am ratings have stabilized, but I’d caution fans to ignore the Sony PR about selecting a new showrunner you may have seen puffed up on some TV entertainment sites. At these ratings levels there is almost no chance it gets a second season and the new show runner will have a very short job.
Body of Proof ‘s future looks bleak too. Last spring’s “Hey, we didn’t cancel all our rookie dramas” renewal for ABC looks like it won’t make it to season 3.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2012
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2012
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2012
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2012
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2012
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from the 2010-11 broadcast television season.