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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – April 12, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Manhattan Love Story*||canceled||0.48|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.75|
|Agent Carter*||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|Secrets & Lies||😐 😐 😐||0.81|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.85|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.86|
|Fresh Off The Boat||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.00|
|Once Upon A Time||1.07|
|How To Get Away With Murder*||renewed||1.62|
Three weeks ago, the cancellation bear moved his prediction for American Crime to “likely to be canceled”. After last week’s 0.9 rating, he’s moving it to “certain to be canceled”.
Has Revenge been canceled? Reasonable people can disagree on what that promo meant. It’s not conclusive enough for the bear to note the show as “canceled,” but it’s persuasive enough to the bear for him to change his prediction to “certain to be canceled”.
Castle’s renewal hinges on new contracts with the stars, the ratings are good enough for renewal of a veteran show, particularly one produced by ABC. Still, anytime that and old, expensive show with just OK ratings is in the mix with actors who may feel underpaid, or are otherwise restless, nothing is certain. The bear assumes the contracts will get signed, but it’s not certain, hence his prediction of “likely to be renewed”.
How is Nashville certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.