Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 8, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Manhattan Love Story*||canceled||0.48|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.73|
|Secrets & Lies||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|Agent Carter*||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.80|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.86|
|Fresh Off The Boat||1.05|
|American Crime||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.07|
|Once Upon A Time||1.15|
|How To Get Away With Murder*||1.52|
American Crime’s premiere ratings put it sufficiently ahead of the cancellation bear to begin his prediction for it as “likely to be renewed”. Where they go from here, and take the bear’s prediction, we’ll see.
The observant will note that the bear has moved his prediction for Agent Carter back to a “toss up” from “likely canceled”. Given that the two shows relative ratings were nearly identical, as he considered whether to change his prediction for Secrets And Lies from a “toss up” to “likely canceled” he decided that moving Agent Carter to “toss up” made more sense based on both show’s relative ratings.
How is Nashville certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:
/* Style Definitions */
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
Agents of SHIELD returned to the same mid-1s it was seeing in Fall. However, with Castle, Nashville, & Revenge ending their runs any season now (and Forever, Resurrection, etc. needing to be replaced), I think ABC will find room for another two seasons of SHIELD.
Many of you wondered last week why I wanted to move The Middle to Tuesdays next season, vs. the mostly lead-in black-ish. The answer is simple: black-ish isn’t merely an ABC production, it is the only current ABC produced comedy. (The Middle is WB, The Goldbergs is Sony, and Modern Family, Last Man Standing, Cristela, & Fresh Off the Boat are all Fox.) As such, the Spring ratings would really have to collapse before ABC pulls a Millers and throws it under The Voice.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.