Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – January 18, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Manhattan Love Story*||canceled||0.48|
|Cristela (F)||😥 😥||0.76|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.83|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
|Agent Carter||😐 😐 😐||1.08|
|black-ish||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.27|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂|
|Once Upon A Time|
|How To Get Away With Murder|
As the cancellation bear has noted many times, the mind tricks that the network PR Jedi are able to play with the term “limited series” befuddle many fans. It behooves the PR Jedi to keep up the confusion, because when a limited series fails, they can spin its single season as the plan all along.
For those who are still confused, a limited series is one that has a limited number of episodes per season (fewer than the “full” 22 episode season), NOT a limited number of seasons.
If a limited series does well, it will be renewed, as happened with Under The Dome, The Following and Sleepy Hollow, etc. If it does badly, it will be canceled and not return, like what happened with Gracepoint, The Assets, Killer Women, etc.
Galavant started reasonably well, but by episode three its ratings had gone fractional. It’s now certain to be canceled and not return next season.
Agent Carter’s prediction has now slipped to “toss up” after its ratings results last week.
How is Nashville certain to be renewed with its ratings? Read this.
Here are some notes from Bubble Watch’s Tom Shaw:
black-ish is having a Winter to forget, as ratings continue to drop, in recent weeks ending as the worst rated comedy in the Wednesday block. The easy assumption is that Empire is now splitting the African-American audience, but reality is more complicated: black-ish’s December ratings (before Empire started airing against it) were barely any better than January’s.
Then there’s the elephant in the room – Modern Family is averaging a mere (for it) 3.0 since December started. If you want to look at the averages:
Difference between Modern Family’s Sep-Nov, and Dec-Jan averages: 0.5
Difference between black-ish’s Sep-Nov, and Dec-Jan averages: 0.5
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The real issue seems to be the ABC 9pm hour softening since Thanksgiving, and (at this point) very little to do with Fox offering stronger competition in the last few weeks.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.