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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 15, 2015):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Manhattan Love Story*||canceled||0.48|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.73|
|Secrets & Lies||😥 😥||0.76|
|Agent Carter*||😐 😐 😐||0.78|
|Castle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.81|
|Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.84|
|American Crime||😐 😐 😐||0.92|
|Fresh Off The Boat||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.04|
|Once Upon A Time||1.10|
|How To Get Away With Murder*||1.54|
Last season, Last Man Standing was renewed with 79% of the ABC spring 2014 ratings average. Through week 25 this season, the show is averaging 73% of the ABC spring 2015 ratings average. Earlier, the cancellation bear moved his prediction for the show to “likely to be renewed”. This week it’s in the headline.
American Crime’s second episode rating dropped to a 1.4, it’s now a “toss up” to be canceled or renewed.
Secrets And Lies 1.3 rating in episode three has the bear adjusting his prediction for it down to “likely canceled”.
After the last two week’s 1.7 & 1.6 ratings, the bear has dialed back his prediction for Fresh Off The Boat to just “likely to be renewed”. He still doesn’t like his chances to catch the show, but more ratings declines may change that.
The 1.5 rating for last week’s Agents of SHIELD has the bear close to moving his prediction down to a “toss up”. He’ll wait at least another week.
How is Nashville certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😳||certain to be cancelled by May, 2015|
|😥 😥||more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015|
|😐 😐 😐||toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015|
|certain to be renewed by May, 2015|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.