Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
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Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts potential renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2014-15 season in May, 2015. (includes results from December 29, 2014 – March 1, 2015):

Program Status Renew/ Cancel Index
Revenge 😥 😥 0.47
Manhattan Love Story* canceled 0.48
Selfie* canceled 0.53
Forever 😳 0.55
Cristela (F) 😳 0.57
Resurrection* 😳 0.59
Nashville :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 0.72
Galavant* 😳 0.72
Last Man Standing (F) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.74
Agent Carter* 😥 😥 0.78
Castle  🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 0.81
Secrets & Lies 😐 😐 😐 0.81
Fresh Off The Boat :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.08
black-ish :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.14
The Middle :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.17
Once Upon A Time :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.19
The Goldbergs :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.27
Grey’s Anatomy  :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.31
How To Get Away With Murder* :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.54
Modern Family :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.75
Scandal :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: 1.79
Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

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If Secrets & Lies holds on to its premiere ratings it might escape the cancellation bear, that’s why he’s starting it at a “toss up” to be canceled or renewed. Any declines from that level and he’ll be making room on his plate for the show.

Fresh Off The Boat lost just a tenth of a ratings point in competition with The Voice. That’s good enough for the bear to move it to “certain to be renewed”. Look for it in a future headline.

The observant will note that the bear has moved his prediction for Last Man Standing to “likely renewed”. More on that in a future week.

Previous weeks:

How is Nashville certain to be renewed with such low ratings? Read this.

Notes from Bubble Watch’s @TVTomShaw:

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Fresh Off the Boat started off pretty well, but I was hesitant to make any judgment before seeing how it held up opposite normal competition. And the answer is: quite well, outrating almost every airing The Goldbergs had last season (at an earlier hour, no less!) The question is no longer should ABC renew Boat, but rather how they should schedule around it. If I were ABC, that would be a The Middle / Fresh Off the Boat hour Tue@8 next season, which A) gives the Tuesday ABC comedy block its best chance of success in years, B) opens a slot on Wednesday for a new comedy, & C) lets ABC see how Boat would perform with an actual lead-in (and in a higher viewed timeslot).

Secrets & Lies premiered to a 1.5 rating. Assuming the usual 20% drop from its premiere, that puts it in the same low 1s territory Resurrection & Revenge saw in Fall. That’s not going to get it another season, nor give Revenge much of a boost.

Agent Carter finished in the same mid 1s territory it has been in since Week 2. For a normal show on ABC, that would be toast; whatever boost the Marvel connections give it inside ABC is beyond our knowledge.


Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people. While this post will likely be viewed many tens of thousands of times, the commenting audience is a tiny fraction of that (a few hundred comments is typical). Tens of thousands of fans follow the bear on Twitter.

*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.

Notes:

😳 certain to be cancelled by May, 2015
😥 😥 more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2015
😐 😐 😐 toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2015
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2015
:mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen: certain to be renewed by May, 2015


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

How have the Renew / Cancel Index Worked Out In Past Seasons? See all the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent past television seasons.

Posted by:TV By The Numbers

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