ABC network scripted average through Sept. 27 (one week): 2.15
|Program||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😦 😦||1.1||0.51|
|Castle (O)||😦 😦||1.2||0.56|
|Nashville (O)||😦 😦||1.2||0.56|
|Blood & Oil (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.4||0.65|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.8||0.84|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.9||0.88|
|Quantico (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.9||0.88|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.1||0.98|
|Black-ish||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.4||1.12|
|The Goldbergs||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.4||1.12|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||n/a||n/a|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.6||1.21|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.8||1.3|
|The Muppets (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.9||1.35|
|Modern Family||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||3.2||1.49|
|Scandal (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||3.3||1.53|
ABC had a pretty solid premiere week: “The Muppets” was the No. 2 new show (behind “Blindspot”), the Wednesday comedies and the TGIT block returned solidly, and “Quantico” hung in on Sunday night.
That’s the good news. The bad news is that two of its veteran shows got off to pretty meager starts. “Castle” posted a series low in adults 18-49, while “Nashville” had its lowest-rated premiere to date (though not its worst performance overall).
“Castle” is well into its syndication afterlife, having crossed 150 episodes late last season. “Nashville” benefited from the four-season rule last year, but even though ABC also produces it, those numbers could make it hard to justify a fifth (see: “Revenge”). An announcement somewhere down the line that either show is now in its final season wouldn’t be a shock.
Better to follow the Bear than be chased by him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why Live+Same Day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.