ABC scripted average through Dec. 6: 1.65
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Wicked City (O)||Canceled||0.67||0.40|
|Blood & Oil (O)||DSW||0.98||0.59|
|Nashville (O)||😦 😦||1.06||0.64|
|Castle (O)||😦 😦||1.13||0.68|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||1.23||0.75|
|The Muppets (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.58||0.96|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.26||0.76|
|Quantico (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.47||0.89|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.54||0.93|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.57||0.95|
|Black-ish (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.88||1.14|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.03||1.23|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.43||0.87|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.12||1.28|
|The Goldbergs||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.17||1.32|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.38||1.44|
|Scandal (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.52||1.53|
|Modern Family||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.78||1.68|
Based purely on its numbers — and the consistency of those numbers — “The Middle” will be back for an eighth season in fall 2016. But a show that’s been around that long has other factors to consider, which is why “The Middle” is still in the “likely renewal” category.
The series was briefly in limbo last year, as the cast’s contracts were up and Charlie McDermott took a role in a CBS pilot (which wasn’t picked up). The cast re-upped, and the series has continued to chug along as the leadoff to ABC’s Wednesday comedy block.
A seven-year-old show is not cheap to make, however, and ABC has proven to be a solid developer of family comedies in recent seasons. It’s conceivable that, should “The Middle” prove too costly next season, “The Goldbergs” could move up to 8 p.m. and either a new show or something like “Fresh Off the Boat” could slide into the 8:30 spot.
Is that likely? Not very. “The Middle” has a very good chance of returning — if there were a way to give 4 1/2 smileys, it would have them. But it’s not quite ready to lock in yet.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.