ABC network scripted average through Oct. 4 (two weeks): 1.99
|Program||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Nashville (O)||😦 😦||1.15||0.58|
|Castle (O)||😦 😦||1.2||0.6|
|Blood & Oil (O)||😦 😦||1.35||0.68|
|Last Man Standing (F)||😐 😐 😐||1.15||0.58|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.5||0.75|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.8||0.9|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.8||0.9|
|Quantico (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.9||0.95|
|The Middle||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.15||1.08|
|Black-ish||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.1||1.05|
|The Goldbergs||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.4||1.21|
|The Muppets (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||2.45||1.23|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||1.7||0.85|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.45||1.23|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||2.55||1.28|
|Scandal (O)||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||3.05||1.53|
|Modern Family||😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||3.1||1.56|
Two weeks in, ABC’s scripted shows collectively are doing better than any of their network brethren. Look at all those smiley faces up there. Heck, even the critically pilloried “Dr. Ken” scored pretty well in its premiere.
Which isn’t to say there aren’t some trouble spots. Newbie “Blood & Oil” dipped in its second week, downgrading it to a likely cancellation. And “Nashville” and “Castle” are still looking pretty meager; an early bump for “Castle” in week 2 was a “Monday Night Football” mirage. And while “The Muppets” is still in good shape, it had a steep dropoff from its premiere. That takes it out of sure-thing territory for the moment.
On the other hand, “Quantico” has really shored up the 10 p.m. timeslot on Sunday thus far. A back-nine pickup shouldn’t be too far in its future.
Better to follow the Bear than be chased by him. You can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. If you want to interact with the bear, Twitter, not these post’s comments, is the place to do that. It’s more fun for the bear and reaches far more people.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.