ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 27 of the 2015-16 season looks at shows on the bubble. For these purposes, “bubble” means any show not yet renewed and not listed below as a sure cancellation.
ABC scripted average through March 27: 1.37
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Wicked City (O)||Canceled||0.67||0.4|
|Blood & Oil (O)||Canceled||0.96||0.59|
|Of Kings and Prophets||Canceled||0.65||0.46|
|Agent Carter (O)||😦 😦||0.8||0.54|
|Nashville (O)||😦 😦||1.02||0.74|
|The Family (O)||😦 😦||0.88||0.64|
|Castle (O)||😦 😦||1.1||0.80|
|The Muppets (O)||😦 😦||1.31||0.89|
|American Crime (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.93||0.65|
|The Catch (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.2||0.88|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.36||0.99|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.15||0.84|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.23||0.90|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||Renewed||1.36||0.99|
|Fresh Off the Boat||Renewed||1.41||1.03|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||Renewed||1.46||1.07|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.87||1.34|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.28||1.66|
Between a bubble and a hard place: “Nashville.” The show made news last week by announcing that if it gets a fifth season, “thirtysomething” creators Marshall Herskovitz and Edward Zwick will take over as showrunners. But that’s still a pretty big “if.” It feels like a hail-Mary move.
Bubbling along nicely: “Last Man Standing.” Five seasons in, it’s not a cheap show, and it comes from an outside studio (Warner Bros.). But it’s hard to imagine ABC giving up on a stable Friday audience.
Still sweating it: “Agent Carter,” “Castle,” “The Family,” “The Muppets”
On the safer side: “American Crime,” “Dr. Ken,” “The Real O’Neals”
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.