ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 28 of the 2015-16 season sees a pair of veteran shows with marginal ratings edge into slightly safer territory, even though the numbers say they should be on their way out.
ABC scripted average through April 3: 1.36
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Wicked City (O)||Canceled||0.67||0.4|
|Blood & Oil (O)||Canceled||0.96||0.59|
|Of Kings and Prophets||Canceled||0.65||0.46|
|Agent Carter (O)||😦 😦||0.8||0.54|
|Nashville (O)||😐 😐 😐||1||0.74|
|The Family (O)||😦 😦||0.88||0.65|
|Castle (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.1||0.81|
|The Muppets (O)||😦 😦||1.31||0.89|
|American Crime (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.93||0.65|
|The Catch (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.1||0.81|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.3||0.96|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.15||0.85|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.23||0.90|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||Renewed||1.3||0.96|
|Fresh Off the Boat||Renewed||1.39||1.02|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||Renewed||1.46||1.07|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.87||1.34|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.28||1.68|
If you look at the numbers, this season should be it for “Castle” and “Nashville.” But the Bear is in the prediction business, and the silence from ABC about both shows suggests the network is trying to work out a way to bring them back.
Thus both shows now get a tossup rating, even though if ABC knows what’s good for it they should be let go. It’s been a very weak year for new shows, dramas especially, at the network, which could be making them a little gunshy about adding new series. It’s starting to feel, however, like ABC will try to wring one last year out of each.
It would not be a surprise if the network canceled both shows and left a bunch of angry fans in its wake. But nor would it shock the Bear now to see them again in 2016-17.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.