ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2015-16 season assesses the chances for a new series which has so far managed to keep its head (barely) above water. Will that be enough?
ABC scripted average through April 10: 1.35
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Wicked City (O)||Canceled||0.67||0.4|
|Blood & Oil (O)||Canceled||0.96||0.59|
|Of Kings and Prophets||Canceled||0.65||0.46|
|Agent Carter (O)||😦 😦||0.8||0.54|
|Nashville (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.99||0.73|
|The Family (O)||😦 😦||0.84||0.62|
|Castle (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.1||0.81|
|The Muppets (O)||😦 😦||1.31||0.89|
|American Crime (O)||😐 😐 😐||0.93||0.65|
|The Catch (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.1||0.81|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||😐 😐 😐||1.26||0.93|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.13||0.84|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.22||0.90|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||Renewed||1.27||0.94|
|Fresh Off the Boat||Renewed||1.38||1.02|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||Renewed||1.42||1.05|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.87||1.34|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.26||1.67|
It’s never advisable to get too excited over a tenth of a point swing in the ratings, which “The Catch” had last week in improving to a 1.1 in adults 18-49. But the mere fact that it managed to stay above the 1.0 line is, and the Bear can’t believe he’s really saying this, worth looking at in terms of its renewal chances.
The show remains a tossup for now, with another week or two’s worth of data needed to really see where it’s headed. In this strange broadcast world, however, where shows with sub-1.0 ratings on Big Four networks still have a chance at renewal — an unthinkable idea even two years ago — staying above that line probably counts for something.
“The Catch” also has the fact that it comes from ABC’s most valuable producer in its favor. If its ratings fall in the next couple episodes, it’s likely a goner. But if they hold, its prospects will look a lot sunnier.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.