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ABC network scripted average through Oct. 11: 1.9

Program Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Blood & Oil (O) 😥 1.2 0.63
Nashville (O) 😦 😦 1.1 0.58
Castle (O) 😦 😦 1.2 0.63
Last Man Standing (F) 😐 😐 😐 1.12 0.59
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.4 0.74
Once Upon a Time (O) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.73 0.91
Fresh Off the Boat 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.8 0.95
Quantico (O) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.8 0.95
Black-ish 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 2.03 1.07
The Middle 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 2.1 1.11
The Muppets (O) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 2.2 1.16
Agents of SHIELD (O) 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 1.65 0.87
The Goldbergs 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.3 1.21
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.37 1.25
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.43 1.28
Scandal (O) 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.9 1.53
Modern Family 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.97 1.56

 

“The Goldbergs” began the season as a near-lock for renewal, thanks to the three-full-seasons rule of approaching syndication. The only thing preventing it was the fact that ABC doesn’t also produce the show.

Three weeks in, we can erase any doubt. “The Goldbergs” is ABC’s No. 2 comedy (behind “Modern Family”), and it’s moving up to sure-bet status.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, “Blood & Oil” fell below the 1.0 mark and is now all but certain to get the hook. Yes, it was opposite “The Walking Dead,” but a viable show has to be able to at least hold its own against a big hit. It did not do that.

After a second solid week, “Dr. Ken” — no, really — stays in safe territory. “Fresh Off the Boat” is also thisclose to getting locked in for renewal; one more week of consistent performance should do it. “The Muppets,” meanwhile, is still coasting on its strong premiere, but it needs to stop its slide to stay in safe-bet territory.

Key:

😥 sure bet to be canceled by May 2016
😦 😦 likely to be canceled by May 2016
😐 😐 😐 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 likely to be renewed by May 2016
😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 sure bet to be renewed by May 2016


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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