ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 32 of the 2015-16 season concedes that a couple of veteran dramas are likely to return next season, even if the numbers say they probably shouldn’t.
ABC scripted average through May 1: 1.33
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Wicked City (O)||Canceled||0.67||0.4|
|Blood & Oil (O)||Canceled||0.96||0.59|
|Of Kings and Prophets||Canceled||0.65||0.46|
|Agent Carter (O)||😦 😦||0.8||0.54|
|Nashville (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.96||0.72|
|The Family (O)||😦 😦||0.83||0.62|
|Castle (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.09||0.82|
|The Muppets (O)||😦 😦||1.31||0.89|
|American Crime (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93||0.65|
|The Catch (O)||😦 😦||1.03||0.77|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.18||0.90|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.11||0.83|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||1.2||0.90|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||Renewed||1.22||0.92|
|Fresh Off the Boat||Renewed||1.38||1.04|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||Renewed||1.38||1.04|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.87||1.34|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.24||1.68|
The Bear still believes both those things. But he doesn’t run ABC, and it’s looking like both shows will get a last go-round next season. The ratings say no, but the fact that ABC and Disney are making money on both shows in syndication likely means they’ll get to build up their library of episodes for a little longer.
“The Catch,” however, won’t be so lucky. Its mediocre ratings show little sign of taking a leap next season, and it’s likely the network will cut ties.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|😥||sure bet to be canceled by May 2016|
|😦 😦||likely to be canceled by May 2016|
|😐 😐 😐||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016|
|🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||likely to be renewed by May 2016|
|😀 😀 😀 😀 😀||sure bet to be renewed by May 2016|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.