once-upon-a-time-rc-week-7

ABC scripted average through Nov. 8: 1.71

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Blood & Oil (O) DSW 1.0 0.58
Wicked City (O) 😥 0.8 0.47
Nashville (O) 😦 😦 1.1 0.64
Castle (O) 😦 😦 1.16 0.68
Last Man Standing (F) 😐 😐 😐 1.23 0.72
The Muppets (O) 😐 😐 😐 1.78 1.04
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.28 0.75
Quantico (O) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.57 0.92
Once Upon a Time (O) 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.64 0.96
Fresh Off the Boat 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.65 0.96
Black-ish 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 1.93 1.13
The Middle 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 2.03 1.19
Agents of SHIELD (O) 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 1.5 0.88
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.13 1.25
The Goldbergs 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.2 1.29
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.38 1.39
Scandal (O) 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.59 1.51
Modern Family 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 2.86 1.67

 

This time last year, “Once Upon a Time” was averaging a 2.78 same-day rating in adults 18-49. This year, it’s drawing a 1.63.

So how can a show that’s down 40 percent year to year still be a safe bet for renewal? Such is the weird, wild state of the network TV business.

“OUAT” has been a consistent performer this season, opening at a 1.8 and going no lower than 1.5 so far. It’s just under the network’s scripted average (and finished last season just over it), and it’s a Disney-owned property on the verge of 100 episodes. A sixth season would just make the syndication/streaming pie that much bigger.

Put it all together and you have a (very) likely renewal for next season, ratings dropoff or no.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
😥 sure bet to be canceled by May 2016
😦 😦 likely to be canceled by May 2016
😐 😐 😐 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2016
🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 likely to be renewed by May 2016
😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 sure bet to be renewed by May 2016


The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode live+same-day adults 18-49 average rating by the live+same-day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. Why live+same-day ratings? Because they correlate very closely with the rarely disclosed C3 ratings (viewing of commercials within three days of air), which are the basis for most ad deals.

(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays tend to be renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

How has the Renew/Cancel Index worked out in past seasons? See all the Renew/Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from recent television seasons.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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