Click this link for the latest ABC renewal / cancellation information: [rssinpage rssfeed=’http://feeds.feedburner.com/TvbythenumbersCancel/renewABCShows’ rssitems=’1′ rssformat=’Y’]
Our Renew / Cancel Index predicts the network’s decision on renewal or cancellation for scripted broadcast primetime shows by the end of the 2012-13 season in May, 2013. (includes results from December 31, 2012- April 14, 2013):
|Program||Status||Renew/ Cancel Index|
|Don’t Trust the B in Apt 23*||canceled||0.50|
|Happy Endings (some F)||😳||0.53|
|Malibu Country* (F)||😐 😐 😐||0.65|
|666 Park Avenue*||canceled||0.68|
|Body Of Proof||😥 😥||0.70|
|Last Man Standing* (F)||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.74|
|The Neighbors*||😐 😐 😐||0.87|
|Nashville||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.93|
|Revenge||🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂||0.94|
|Once Upon A Time||1.25|
|How To Live With Your Parents||1.39|
Don’t Trust The B—- has already been devoured by the cancellation bear. Happy Endings may live on with a cable net, but it’s certain to be canceled by ABC. What about the next three higher rated ABC sitcoms?
Malibu Country averaged a 1.3 rating for new episodes since March 1.
Last Man Standing averaged a 1.5 rating since March 1.
The Neighbors averaged a 1.5 rating since March 1.
Of those three, the bear is most confident in the renewal of Last Man Standing. It’s a second year show, airing on Friday which carries some level of low ratings forgiveness, and has matched The Neighbors ratings since March 1.
Based on the early relative success of How To Live With Your Parents, and The Neighbors relatively weak ratings since March 1, the bear is now moving The Neighbors back to a “toss up” for cancellation or renewal.
The bear still likes The Neighbors chances better than those of Malibu Country though, and would give it the least chance for renewal out of the three.
Our final up or down guesses for all shows still with uncertain fates will come on May 7.
Rookie sitcom How To Live With Your Parents (For the Rest Of Your Life) is also in the mix for renewal, but its current ratings are high enough to put it well out of the range of those other three.
Better to Follow The Bear, Than Be Chased By Him. This season you can follow the Cancellation Bear on Twitter via @TheCancelBear. The Cancellation Bear will retweet all the Renew/Cancel Index post titles and links as well as engage in a little more back and forth banter than we do on our standard @TVbytheNumbers Twitter feed.
*shows no longer on the air have their Renew/Cancel Index “frozen” at the point they left the schedule.
From now through the end of the broadcast season in May, the Renew/Cancel Index values will only be calculated using new episodes airing during 2013. However, until new episodes of a show air in 2013, the “old” Fall predictions will carry over.
- 😳 – certain to be cancelled by May, 2013
- 😥 :cry:- more likely to be cancelled than renewed by May, 2013
- 😐 😐 😐 – toss up between renewal or cancellation by May, 2013
- 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 – more likely to be renewed than cancelled by May, 2013
- – certain to be renewed by May, 2013
The Renew/Cancel Index is the ratio of a scripted show’s new episode adults 18-49 ratings relative to the new episode ratings of the other scripted shows on its own network. It’s calculated by dividing a show’s new episode Live+Same Day adults 18-49 average rating by the Live+Same Day new episode average of all the new scripted show episodes on the show’s own network. The network’s average ratings in the calculation are not time weighted (ex. hour long shows are not weighted twice what 30 minute shows are).
(F) -Fridays: Shows airing on Fridays were renewed with significantly lower than average Indexes.
How would the Renew / Cancel Index Have Done Predicting Last Season’s Scripted Show Fates? Check out how the Renew / Cancel Index predicted renewals and cancellations from past television seasons.