Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 1 of the 2018-19 season, and why one freshman drama’s lukewarm premiere may not have hurt its chances at a second season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.8||0.2|
|A Million Little Things (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.5|
|The Good Doctor||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.7|
|Single Parents||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.3||0.7|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.8|
|Modern Family||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.6||1.0|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.9||1.3|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.6|
While “A Million Little Things” wasn’t quite the freshman drama hit that ABC was likely hoping it would be, its lukewarm premiere may still not have diminished its chances at a second season.
The series earned a 1.1 rating with its premiere, failing to take the no. 1 spot in the 10 p.m. hour Wednesday night. However, it matched the “Designated Survivor” season premiere in the same time slot last year, and without the kind of behind-the-scenes production issues that led to the demise of “Designated Survivor,” ABC may still be considering a second season for “A Million Little Things.” That could prove to be especially true, if the show can maintain a steady ratings performance in the coming weeks.
So the chances of “A Million Little Things” getting a second season are looking OK for right now, but the Bear will be keeping an eye on it.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.