ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 10 of the 2016-17 season ponder whether ABC’s latest schedule move will make much of a difference.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious DSW 0.91 0.21
Conviction (O) DSW 0.76 0.06
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.86 0.53
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.11 0.89
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.17
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.08 0.38
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.24 0.54
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.57 0.87
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.63 0.93
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.9 1.2
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.79 1.09
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.54 0.84
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.19 1.49
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.33 1.63
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.66 0.96

Note: Averages and index numbers for “Once Upon a Time,” “Quantico” and “Secrets and Lies” are through Nov. 20. Final numbers for Nov. 27 were delayed by the Thanksgiving holiday.

“Quantico” may see some marginal gains with its move to Monday nights in January. But its replacing “Conviction” is the very definition of a lateral move.

The second-year show was on a downward curve for the second half of last season, and that’s only accelerated this year. It’s barely above replacement level (as is “Conviction”), as ABC kept it in a low-wattage timeslot for the fall in hopes that … well, frankly, the Bear isn’t quite sure what the network was hoping would happen. Presumably not “regularly fall below 1.0 and become one of ABC’s lowest-rated shows,” but that’s the logical progression from where “Quantico” ended last season.

Moving to Monday will at least deliver “Quantico” a decent lead-in — “The Bachelor” was ABC’s second highest-rated show last season. That may help a little, but if the move helps deliver a significant amount of new viewers to a plot-heavy, twist-filled serialized drama midway through its second season, the Bear will eat someone’s hat. (The Bear does not wear hats of his own, being a bear.)

“Quantico” remains in tossup territory for now, pending its results come January. But it’s on the Bear’s radar.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2016/11/30/you-can-now-watch-some-netflix-shows-offline-making-that-long-flight-or-that-visit-to-grandmas-house-a-little-more-bearable/ You can now watch some Netflix shows offline, making that long flight or that visit to Grandma’s house a little more bearable. – foolish watcher

    […] Jane the Virgin, despite having relatively low ratings, will probably be renewed for next season; Quantico is moving to Monday nights in January which does not make Cancel Bear feel better about its chances; And for the reason mentioned […]

    Like

  • https://tvbythenumbers.zap2it.com/renewcancel/cancel-bear-vs-abc-week-20-quantico-downgrades-to-likely-cancellation/ Cancel Bear vs. ABC, week 20: ‘Quantico’ downgrades to likely cancellation – TV By The Numbers by zap2it.com

    […] the Bear noted that “Quantico’s” move to Monday nights would likely result in marginal ratings gains at best. That didn’t happen, and thus the show is getting a downgrade to a likely […]

    Like

blog comments powered by Disqus