Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2018-19 season, and why “The Rookie” remains difficult to predict, for the time being.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Splitting Up Together 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.13
Speechless (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.50 0.12
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.16
The Rookie (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.79 0.19
A Million Little Things (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.81 0.21
Fresh Off the Boat (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.60 0.26
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.33
Single Parents 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.39
Station 19 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.43
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.43
The Kids Are Alright (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.06 0.46
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.52
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.63
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.78
The Conners 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.64 1.04
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.63 1.03

 

Seven episodes into its first season, and the Bear doesn’t quite know what to think of “The Rookie.”

The Nathan Fillion-led series has been doing okay up to this point. Airing Tuesday nights at 10 p.m. after “Splitting Up Together” (a likely cancellation), the series has averaged a 0.79 in the adults 18-49 demo, placing it around where the short-lived “Kevin (Probably) Saves the World” was scoring in the same time slot last season.

While the shows have been performing similarly in the demo though, “The Rookie” has been doing considerably better in total viewers. In its first season, “Kevin” averaged just 2.70 million viewers, whereas “The Rookie” is currently averaging 4.46 million.

So taking into account that ABC was fairly quick to hand out a full-season order for the series, its current ratings/viewership performance, and that it is ABC-owned, the Bear is leaning towards it getting a second season. However, he wants to wait and see how the show does when it returns in 2019 before making an official call.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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