Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 12 of the 2018-19 season, and why one third year show’s ratings struggles have made its future uncertain.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Splitting Up Together 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.13
Speechless (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.49 0.10
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.16
The Rookie (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.79 0.19
A Million Little Things (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.80 0.20
Fresh Off the Boat (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.59 0.24
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.91 0.31
Single Parents 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.38
Station 19 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.43
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.43
The Kids Are Alright (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.04 0.44
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.52
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.22 0.62
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.38 0.78
The Conners 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 1.01
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.63 1.03

 

“Speechless” sits in a unique position in ABC’s renew/cancel standings this season.

The family comedy was moved to Friday nights ahead of its premiere this fall, and since then, has been averaging an OK (at best) 0.49 rating in adults 18-49 in its time slot. Its lead-in, “Fresh Off the Boat,” is doing somewhat better than it, with a 0.59 average of its own, but neither shows have done much for ABC’s Friday night schedule.

Now, normally with those numbers, the Bear would have made “Speechless” a likely cancellation several weeks ago, but it has remained a tossup for a few reasons. The first is it being subject to some added protection under the third season renewal, and the second is that it’s very close to becoming ABC-owned after the Disney/FOX merger.

For those reasons alone, the Bear believes there’s a chance ABC could be willing to stick with it for at least another season. He’s not sure enough in that prediction to make the series a likely renewal quite yet, but hopefully, when the show comes back from its winter hiatus, its future will become a little more clear.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2018/12/21/watch-the-first-episode-of-syfys-teen-assassin-series-deadly-class-and-why-not-you-know-youve-already-mentally-checked-out-for-your-holiday-vacation/ Watch the first episode of Syfy’s teen assassin series, ‘Deadly Class.’ (And why not? You know you’ve already mentally checked out for your holiday vacation.) – foolish watcher

    […] will probably renew Speechless, despite middling ratings, and Modern Family edges closer to an 11th season […]

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