Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 18 of the 2018-19 season, and why “Fresh Off the Boat” will probably return for a sixth season – despite moving to an entirely new night this year.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Splitting Up Together 🐻 🐻 0.71 0.11
Speechless (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.51 0.13
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.14
The Rookie (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.15
Single Parents 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.33
The Kids Are Alright (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.39
A Million Little Things (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.25
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.28
Fresh Off the Boat (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.63 0.30
Station 19 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.43
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.43
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.11 0.51
Schooled 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.17 0.57
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.22 0.62
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.35 0.75
The Conners 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.55 0.95
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.66 1.06

 

“Fresh Off the Boat” took a predictable hit when it was moved from Tuesdays to Fridays this season, but the Bear doesn’t think that move has hurt the show’s renewal chances.

After experiencing some trouble initially in the fall, “Fresh Off the Boat” has settled into a smooth rhythm Friday nights, with a 0.63 live + same day average rating so far this year. That’s not, by any means, the kind of average that could guarantee it a renewal, but it’s a solid-enough Friday average to keep it safe.

Notably, Disney/ABC will also soon become producer on the show when the studio’s deal with FOX finally closes, giving the network even more incentive to keep it around a little while longer. The future of its Friday partner, “Speechless,” may be in more uncertain territory right now, but the Bear has a good feeling about “Fresh Off the Boat” getting a sixth season.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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