ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 19 of the 2016-17 season have a veteran show returning in a safe spot.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) Canceled 0.64 -0.06
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.89 0.57
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.79 0.09
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.19 1.00
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.27 0.57
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.29 0.59
The Middle Renewed 1.59 0.89
Scandal (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.0 1.3
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.57 0.87
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 0.98
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.44 0.74
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.23 1.53
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.84 1.14
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.29 1.59
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 0.91

 

“Scandal” has only been back on the air for a week, so it’s perhaps a little bit early to lock it in for renewal. But make no mistake — it’s safe.

The show suffered its first real ratings declines last season but was nowhere near the danger zone. It’s likely to come down from the premiere 2.0 in adults 18-49 over the course of this season as well. But it would have to fall really, really far — like “Conviction” far — to be in any real danger.

The intact TGIT lineup gave ABC a 40 percent bump over the “Grey’s Anatomy”-“Notorious”-“How to Get Away with Murder” trio in the fall. “Grey’s” and “HTGAWM” were both above average last week, sure, but “Scandal” more than doubled the numbers for “Notorious.” That’s a big deal, and it will be rewarded come spring.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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