ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 19 of the 2016-17 season have a veteran show returning in a safe spot.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) Canceled 0.64 -0.06
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.89 0.57
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.78 0.08
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.05 0.35
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.19 1.00
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.27 0.57
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.29 0.59
The Middle Renewed 1.59 0.89
Scandal (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.87 1.17
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.57 0.87
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 0.98
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.44 0.74
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.24 1.54
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.84 1.14
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.29 1.59
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.61 0.91

 

A while back the Bear noted that “Quantico’s” move to Monday nights would likely result in marginal ratings gains at best. That didn’t happen, and thus the show is getting a downgrade to a likely cancellation.

In its fall run on Sundays, “Quantico” averaged a 0.76 rating in adults 18-49 with a lead-in (“Secrets and Lies”) that drew just about the same ratings. In its first two Monday episodes, with a “Bachelor” lead-in almost three times as large as that of “Secrets and Lies,” “Quantico” has averaged … 0.75.

Between “Conviction” and “Quantico,” ABC has made a mess of its 10 p.m. Monday slot this season, squandering lead-ins from two of its stronger anchors in “Dancing with the Stars” and “The Bachelor.”

“Quantico” probably won’t move much higher than its current ratings this season. It is what it is at this point, and that’s a show ABC should cut ties with at season’s end.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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