Cancel Bear vs. ABC, week 23: ‘Designated Survivor’s’ case gets a little weaker

Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 23 of the 2017-18 season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Middle Final season 1.34 0.64
Scandal (O) Final season 1.19 0.49
Ten Days in the Valley (some Sat.) Canceled 0.36 -0.34
Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O) 🐻 🐻 0.66 -0.04
Once Upon a Time (F) (O) Final season 0.53 0.06
Inhumans (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.59 0.14
Agents of SHIELD (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.59 0.14
The Mayor (O) Canceled 0.82 0.12
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.04 0.34
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.79 0.09
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.16 0.46
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.12 0.42
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.28 0.58
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.81 1.11
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.06 1.36
The Goldbergs Renewed 1.52 0.82
Modern Family Renewed 1.7 1.0

 

The Bear isn’t going to move “Designated Survivor” off the tossup line until he sees how the next few episodes play out. But the show’s return last week from a three-month hiatus was not good.

As in all-time low not good. The Bear is aware that most of “Designated Survivor’s” audience watches the show after it first airs. But the Bear’s mantra has long been that the same-day ratings are the closest predictor of a show’s fate (and they correlate pretty well with the usually unseen commercial ratings).

If “Designated Survivor” can right the ship a little in the coming weeks it could earn its way back to being a likely renewal. If the floor keeps falling, however, it will be in trouble.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.