Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 24 of the 2018-19 season, and why the Bear believes one unlikely freshman drama could return next season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
A Million Little Things (O) Renewed 0.91 0.31
The Good Doctor Renewed 1.10 0.50
Modern Family Renewed 1.31 0.71
Splitting Up Together 🐻 0.69 0.09
For the People (O) 🐻 🐻 0.50 -0.10
Single Parents 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.28
The Kids Are Alright (O) 🐻 🐻 0.92 0.32
Whiskey Cavalier 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.80 0.20
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.69 0.09
Speechless (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.49 0.10
The Rookie (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.13
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.86 0.26
Fresh Off the Boat (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.63 0.30
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.99 0.39
Station 19 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.41
Schooled 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.41
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.21 0.61
The Conners 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.55 0.95
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.62 1.02

 

The Bear still doesn’t quite know what to think of “The Rookie.”

The Nathan Fillion-led cop drama has been a consistently low performer in its Tuesday night 10 p.m. time slot, with a 0.73 average live + same day rating among adults 18-49. However, the series has been doing particularly well in the DVR ratings, and usually manages to at least double its rating and audience size with delayed viewing.

So thanks to the show’s solid DVR performance, and the fact that it’s ABC-owned, the Bear has cautiously moved “The Rookie” from a tossup to a likely renewal. Although, it should be noted that the show still doesn’t haven’t enough going for it to make that a secure call, and did fail to receive the same early season 2 renewal that was given to fellow freshman drama, “A Million Little Things.”

Still, the Bear has a feeling ABC could want to bring this one back again next year, and may even try seeing how it does with a stronger lead-in. Call it a hunch.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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