ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 26 of the 2016-17 move a first-year show into sure-bet territory.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious Canceled 0.87 0.17
Conviction (O) Canceled 0.64 -0.06
American Crime (O) 🐻 🐻 0.45 -0.25
Time After Time 🐻 🐻 0.57 -0.13
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.76 0.06
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.04
The Catch (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.05
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.56
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.05
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.01 0.31
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.17 0.97
How to Get Away with Murder (O) Renewed 1.29 0.59
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.22 0.52
The Middle Renewed 1.58 0.88
Scandal (O) Renewed 1.62 0.92
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.53 0.83
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.64 0.94
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.42 0.72
Grey’s Anatomy (O) Renewed 2.17 1.47
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.81 1.11
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.19 1.49
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.58 0.88

 

“Designated Survivor” has suffered no real ill effects so far from its long winter layoff. Its first two episodes in March had slightly better ratings than the last two episodes of the fall.

For that reason primarily — but not entirely — the bear is bumping the show up to sure-bet status for next season. The other reason? It’s the only chance ABC has to save face in a truly bad year for its new dramas.

Not to put too fine a point on it, but the rest of ABC’s new dramas this season have stunk. “Conviction” and “Notorious” are already gone, and “Time After Time” is pulling mid-pack CW numbers on Sundays. “Designated Survivor’s” 1.4 average thus far is 56 percent higher than the next-best of those three (“Notorious,” for the record).

ABC has a fairly sizable rebuilding job to do in its drama department. “Designated Survivor” will at the very least make that job a little smaller.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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