Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 27 of the 2018-19 season, and why one freshman action series probably won’t reach a second season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
A Million Little Things (O) Renewed 0.91 0.31
The Good Doctor Renewed 1.11 0.51
Modern Family (O) Renewed 1.29 0.69
The Conners Renewed 1.55 0.95
Splitting Up Together 🐻 0.68 0.08
For the People (O) 🐻 🐻 0.53 -0.07
The Fix (O) 🐻 🐻 0.65 0.05
Whiskey Cavalier 🐻 🐻 0.66 0.06
Single Parents (O) 🐻 🐻 0.86 0.26
The Kids Are Alright (O) 🐻 🐻 0.89 0.29
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.69 0.09
Speechless (O) (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.49 0.10
The Rookie (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.72 0.12
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.83 0.23
Fresh Off the Boat (O) (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.62 0.29
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.97 0.37
Station 19 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.38
Schooled 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.00 0.40
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.20 0.60
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.59 0.99

 

The Bear was willing to give “Whiskey Cavalier” the benefit of the doubt after its time-period premiere only raked in a low 0.7 live + same day rating among adults 18-49. After all, its premiere ratings could have been impaired by ABC’s special post-Oscars airing of its pilot, just a few days before it made its Wednesday debut.

When the show experienced a rare second-week bump up to a 0.9, courtesy of a special “American Idol” lead-in too, the Bear even started to consider the possibility that “Whiskey Cavalier” could manage to climb up to a some more solid ratings in its future episodes.

However, it’s looking more and more like that 0.9 it scored in its second week was, indeed, a fluke. Since then, the series has scored two 0.6s and a 0.5 just this past week.

That leaves “Whiskey Cavalier” with only a 0.66 average rating, making it ABC’s second-lowest-rated freshman show of the season, narrowly beating “The Fix,” which the Bear has already called a likely cancellation.

So, after considering both its poor ratings performance and its status as a freshman title, the Bear is going to go ahead and predict that “Whiskey Cavalier” is likely to be cancelled as well.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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