Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 27 of the 2018-19 season, and why one freshman action series probably won’t reach a second season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|A Million Little Things (O)||Renewed||0.91||0.31|
|The Good Doctor||Renewed||1.11||0.51|
|Modern Family (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.69|
|Splitting Up Together||🐻||0.68||0.08|
|For the People (O)||🐻 🐻||0.53||-0.07|
|The Fix (O)||🐻 🐻||0.65||0.05|
|Whiskey Cavalier||🐻 🐻||0.66||0.06|
|Single Parents (O)||🐻 🐻||0.86||0.26|
|The Kids Are Alright (O)||🐻 🐻||0.89||0.29|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.69||0.09|
|Speechless (O) (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.49||0.10|
|The Rookie (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.72||0.12|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.83||0.23|
|Fresh Off the Boat (O) (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.62||0.29|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.97||0.37|
|Station 19 (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.98||0.38|
|Schooled||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.00||0.40|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.20||0.60|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.59||0.99|
The Bear was willing to give “Whiskey Cavalier” the benefit of the doubt after its time-period premiere only raked in a low 0.7 live + same day rating among adults 18-49. After all, its premiere ratings could have been impaired by ABC’s special post-Oscars airing of its pilot, just a few days before it made its Wednesday debut.
When the show experienced a rare second-week bump up to a 0.9, courtesy of a special “American Idol” lead-in too, the Bear even started to consider the possibility that “Whiskey Cavalier” could manage to climb up to a some more solid ratings in its future episodes.
However, it’s looking more and more like that 0.9 it scored in its second week was, indeed, a fluke. Since then, the series has scored two 0.6s and a 0.5 just this past week.
That leaves “Whiskey Cavalier” with only a 0.66 average rating, making it ABC’s second-lowest-rated freshman show of the season, narrowly beating “The Fix,” which the Bear has already called a likely cancellation.
So, after considering both its poor ratings performance and its status as a freshman title, the Bear is going to go ahead and predict that “Whiskey Cavalier” is likely to be cancelled as well.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.