Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 27 of the 2017-18 season.
| Show | Status | 18-49 rating | Renew/Cancel Index |
| The Middle | Final season | 1.32 | 0.62 |
| Scandal (O) | Final season | 1.15 | 0.45 |
| Ten Days in the Valley (some Sat.) | Canceled | 0.36 | -0.34 |
| Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O) | 🐻 🐻 | 0.66 | -0.04 |
| Once Upon a Time (F) (O) | Final season | 0.52 | 0.04 |
| Inhumans (F) (O) | 🐻 🐻 | 0.59 | 0.14 |
| For the People (O) | 🐻 🐻 | 0.77 | 0.07 |
| Agents of SHIELD (F) (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.57 | 0.12 |
| The Mayor (O) | Canceled | 0.82 | 0.12 |
| Fresh Off the Boat | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.03 | 0.33 |
| How to Get Away with Murder (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.95 | 0.25 |
| Designated Survivor (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.76 | 0.06 |
| Speechless | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.13 | 0.43 |
| Alex, Inc. | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| Station 19 (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.15 | 0.45 |
| Deception | 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 0.88 | 0.18 |
| Splitting Up Together | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Black-ish (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.18 | 0.48 |
| American Housewife (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.25 | 0.55 |
| The Good Doctor | Renewed | 1.79 | 1.09 |
| Grey’s Anatomy (O) | 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | 1.99 | 1.29 |
| The Goldbergs | Renewed | 1.52 | 0.82 |
| Modern Family | Renewed | 1.66 | 0.96 |
| Roseanne | Renewed | 5.2 | 4.5 |
As the Bear noted on Twitter last week, a blind wombat could have predicted the pickup of “Roseanne” after its huge premiere. The Bear is here to talk about the other comedy ABC debuted last week.
“Splitting Up Together” very clearly benefited from the “Roseanne” halo; it will not be averaging a 2.1 rating in adults 18-49 in the coming weeks. Still, the Bear is starting it as a likely renewal for a couple of reasons.
For starters, a 2-plus rating in 2018 is notable even with a huge lead-in. Consider that “Instinct” managed just a 1.3 for CBS coming out of a 4.0 for “60 Minutes” just a week earlier.
“Splitting Up Together” also retained better than 80 percent of its immediate lead-in, “Black-ish.” That’s an improvement on “The Mayor’s” retention from the fall.
Should “Splitting Up Together” keep up that kind of retention when the “Roseanne” effect lessens, it will probably return next season. If it craters, however, the Bear won’t hesitate to change his prediction.
Key:
| DSW | Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing | ||||
| 🐻 | sure bet to be canceled by May 2018 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 | likely to be canceled by May 2018 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 | tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | likely to be renewed by May 2018 | ||||
| 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 | sure bet to be renewed by May 2018 | ||||
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.
