ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 28 of the 2016-17 go with the bird in hand for a veteran show.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|American Crime (O)||🐻 🐻||0.4||-0.30|
|Time After Time||Canceled||0.53||-0.17|
|Secrets and Lies (O)||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Quantico (O)||🐻 🐻||0.73||0.03|
|The Catch (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.87||0.54|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.05|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.99||0.29|
|Imaginary Mary (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.4||0.7|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.96|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.22||0.52|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.53||0.83|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.64||0.94|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.37||0.67|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||2.14||1.44|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.8||1.1|
|Modern Family||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.19||1.49|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.57||0.87|
“Once Upon a Time” has overstayed its welcome, at least in terms of ratings. The series has set new lows each of the past two seasons, and it’s barely hanging at a 1.0 rating at the moment.
It’s also, however, likely to be back next season. You can thank the current broadcast climate for that seeming paradox.
Yes, “OUAT” is way down. But the untested-show grass is rarely greener. With Sunday no longer the big night it once was on the broadcast networks (excepting football, obviously), a show hovering around a 1 is … still not great, but probably better than the alternative. One need only look at the weakness of this season’s new dramas for confirmation.
ABC will probably also let “Once Upon a Time” have an announced final season and reap whatever (marginal) promotional benefit that brings. The Bear is kicking it up to a likely renewal.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.