Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 3 of the 2018-19 season, and why one freshman show seems especially likely to be renewed.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
A Million Little Things (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.90 0.30
Speechless (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.45 0.04
Fresh Off the Boat (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.55 0.19
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.80 0.20
Single Parents 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.13 0.53
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.20 0.60
Station 19 (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.20 0.60
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.33 0.73
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.47 0.87
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.67 1.07
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.10 0.50

 

It’s looking like ABC’s “Single Parents” could stick together for a second season.

The series has been performing well in the ratings up to this point, with an average 1.1 rating among adults 18-49. But even more importantly, it’s the first freshman comedy of the season to receive a full-season pickup, which comes as a strong vote of confidence from ABC.

Obviously, a sharp enough ratings decline could hurt its chances, but as of right now, the Bear is keeping it as a likely renewal.

The Bear is also tentatively changing “A Million Little Things” to a tossup, after the show fell three-tenths from its premiere’s 1.1. But if it continues to hold as strongly to its ratings as it has the past few weeks, the Bear will probably change it back to a likely renewal.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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