ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 3 of the 2016-17 season include a rough start for a new show.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the new methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Conviction (O) 🐻 🐻 0.9 0.2
Notorious 🐻 🐻 1.03 0.33
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.54
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.87
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.87 1.17
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.87 1.17
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.87 1.17
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.37 1.67
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.37 1.67
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.7 1.0

 

“Conviction” seemed like a pretty easy sell going into its premiere: It took a familiar formula — cynical-but-smart leader works with a team of dedicated underlings, in this case looking for bad convictions in the legal system — installed a charismatic lead in Hayley Atwell and plugged it into the timeslot where “Castle” thrived for years.

It was not an easy sell. The show premiered to the lowest rating (0.9) of any new series on the Big 4 networks so far. It’s below the 1.1 average for “Castle” last season.

That’s not the way to start. It is the way toward a quick finish. As of now “Conviction” is likely to be canceled.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2016/10/11/another-day-another-go-round-in-the-trump-shitshow/ Another day, another go round in the Trump shitshow. – foolish watcher

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