Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 31 of the 2017-18 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Middle||Final season||1.4||0.7|
|Scandal (O)||Final season||1.13||0.43|
|Ten Days in the Valley (some Sat.)||Canceled||0.36||-0.34|
|Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O)||🐻 🐻||0.66||-0.04|
|Once Upon a Time (F) (O)||Final season||0.5||0.02|
|Quantico (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.5||-0.2|
|Inhumans (F) (O)||🐻||0.59||0.14|
|For the People (O)||🐻 🐻||0.7||0.0|
|Agents of SHIELD (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.54||0.07|
|The Mayor (O)||Canceled||0.82||0.12|
|The Crossing (O)||🐻 🐻||0.78||0.08|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.33|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.25|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.72||0.02|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.13||0.43|
|Alex, Inc.||🐻 🐻||0.87||0.17|
|Station 19 (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.05||0.35|
|Splitting Up Together||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.43||0.73|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.2||0.5|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.24||0.54|
|The Good Doctor||Renewed||1.79||1.09|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||1.93||1.23|
“Designated Survivor” is limping to the end of its second season, notching ratings just above replacement level. But the Bear has a gut feeling ABC will give it this season’s “Quantico” Memorial Indefensible Renewal Award.
(More on the actual “Quantico” in a moment.)
“Designated Survivor” is a Disney-owned show that has a streaming deal in place (with Hulu). ABC’s drama bench is also looking a bit thin, pending the results of pilot season. That may be just enough to get the show through to a third season.
A couple of rookie shows previously listed as tossups likely won’t be so lucky. “Alex, Inc.” and “Deception” haven’t shown enough in their spring runs to make it to next season.
As for “Quantico,” The Bear must revise his Third Season Rule prediction of a likely renewal from the start of the season. It may stick around, but its very poor start doesn’t augur well for its being a regular part of ABC’s schedule. The Bear could see it perhaps running as a summer show in order to pad out the episode count for its Netflix deal. After a single week, it’s a tossup.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.