The broadcast networks are set to unveil their 2019-20 lineups to advertisers the week of May 13. So ahead of those announcements, it’s time for the Bear to make his final renewal and cancellation predictions of the season, for all of the network shows still in limbo. Nearly every one of these shows will have their fates decided within the next several days.
When it comes to ABC, the Bear still thinks both “Single Parents” and “The Kids Are Alright” will be canceled after one season, but could see one or both being given a surprise renewal. After starting out as a likely renewal though, “Bless This Mess” has fallen into tossup territory, thanks to its post-premiere ratings decline.
Meanwhile, the Bear is still calling “The Rookie” a likely renewal, following its solid ratings performance this spring. “Grey’s Anatomy” is also, unsurprisingly, a sure bet for renewal. The “Status” column below will be updated as the network’s decisions are announced.
|Show||Renew/Cancel Index||Renewal chances||Status|
|Splitting Up Together||0.67||5%||Canceled 5/10|
|The Fix (O)||0.53||7%||Canceled 5/10|
|Whiskey Cavalier||0.59||13%||Canceled 5/12|
|For the People (O)||0.51||20%||Canceled 5/9|
|The Kids Are Alright (O)||0.85||46%||Canceled 5/10|
|Single Parents (O)||0.85||46%||Renewed 5/10|
|Bless This Mess (O)||0.73||50%||Renewed 5/10|
|Speechless (O) (F)||0.49||72%||Canceled 5/10|
|Fresh Off the Boat (O) (F)||0.62||75%||Renewed 5/10|
|The Rookie (O)||0.72||75%||Renewed 5/10|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||0.69||88%||Renewed 5/10|
|Station 19 (O)||0.97||90%||Renewed 5/10|
|American Housewife (O)||0.94||95%||Renewed 5/10|
|The Goldbergs||1.18||98%||Renewed 5/11|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||1.56||99%||Renewed 5/10|
Already renewed: “Black-ish,” “A Million Little Things,” “The Good Doctor,” “Modern Family,” “The Conners”
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.