The broadcast networks announce their 2017-18 schedules the week of May 15, so it’s time for the Bear’s last predictions for renewal or cancellation. Nearly every series still in limbo will know its fate by the end of this week.

Below are the renewal chances for ABC shows. The Bear is fairly confident about “Once Upon a Time’s” return and slightly less sure about “Agents of SHIELD,” but it’s still likely to return. “Dr. Ken” is just on the wrong side of the bubble, while “The Catch,” “Secrets and Lies” and a few others look to be goners. The Status column will be updated as decisions come.

Show Renew/Cancel Index Renewal chances Status
Secrets and Lies 0.06 5% Canceled 5/11
The Real O’Neals 0.23 15% Canceled 5/11
Imaginary Mary 0.22 15% Canceled 5/11
American Crime -0.31 20% Canceled 5/11
The Catch -0.01 25% Canceled 5/11
Quantico -0.01 35%
Dr. Ken 0.54 47% Canceled 5/11
Agents of SHIELD 0.04 60% Renewed 5/11
Once Upon a Time 0.24 75% Renewed 5/11
Fresh Off the Boat 0.49 80% Renewed 5/12
Last Man Standing 0.96 85% Canceled 5/10
American Housewife 0.76 90% Renewed 5/11
Speechless 0.89 95% Renewed 5/12
Designated Survivor 0.57 100% Renewed 5/11
Black-ish 0.82 100% Renewed 5/11
The Goldbergs 1.05 100% Renewed 5/11
Modern Family 1.45 100% Renewed 5/10


Already renewed: “Grey’s Anatomy,” “How to Get Away with Murder,” “The Middle,” “Scandal”

Already canceled: “Conviction,” “Notorious,” “Time After Time”

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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