Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2019-20 season.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||Final Season||0.50||0.00|
|Modern Family (O)||Final Season||1.03||0.53|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||Renewed||1.35||0.85|
|Fresh Off the Boat (F) (O)||🐻 🐻||0.43||0.13|
|Emergence (O)||🐻 🐻||0.60||0.10|
|Single Parents (O)||🐻 🐻||0.70||0.20|
|The Rookie (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.63||0.13|
|Stumptown (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.65||0.15|
|mixed-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.73||0.23|
|black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.73||0.23|
|Bless This Mess (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.75||0.25|
|Schooled||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.78||0.28|
|American Housewife (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.58||0.33|
|A Million Little Things (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.83||0.33|
|The Good Doctor||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.90||0.40|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.00||0.50|
|The Conners||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.20||0.70|
The Bear doesn’t quite know what to think of “Emergence.”
On the one hand, the freshman drama is ABC’s lowest-rated rookie show of the fall, averaging only a 0.6 live + same day rating among adults 18-49 across its first four episodes.
On the other hand, the series has been doing notably well in the DVR ratings, routinely doubling its L+SD ratings and audiences after just seven days of delayed viewing. Those kinds of strong gains could very well be enough to secure “Emergence” a second season.
With that being said, the series hasn’t been performing quite as well as fellow freshman drama, “Stumptown,” which has both a slightly higher L+SD average (0.65) and is pulling in the biggest delayed viewing gains of any of this fall’s rookie titles. As a result, if ABC were to renew only one of those two shows, based solely on their DVR performances, he’d lean towards it being “Stumptown.”
So, for now, the Bear is calling “Emergence” a likely cancellation, but don’t be surprised if he decides to move it back into tossup or likely renewal territory sometime in the coming weeks.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2020|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2020|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2020|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2020|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2020|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2019-20 season, replacement level is a 0.5 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.5 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.