Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2019-20 season.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
How to Get Away with Murder (O) Final Season 0.50 0.00
Modern Family (O) Final Season 1.03 0.53
Grey’s Anatomy (O) Renewed 1.35 0.85
Fresh Off the Boat (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 0.43 0.13
Emergence (O) 🐻 🐻 0.60 0.10
Single Parents (O) 🐻 🐻 0.70 0.20
The Rookie (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.63 0.13
Stumptown (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.65 0.15
mixed-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.23
black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.23
Bless This Mess (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.75 0.25
Schooled 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.78 0.28
American Housewife (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.58 0.33
A Million Little Things (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.83 0.33
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.90 0.40
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.00 0.50
The Conners 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.20 0.70

 

The Bear doesn’t quite know what to think of “Emergence.”

On the one hand, the freshman drama is ABC’s lowest-rated rookie show of the fall, averaging only a 0.6 live + same day rating among adults 18-49 across its first four episodes.

On the other hand, the series has been doing notably well in the DVR ratings, routinely doubling its L+SD ratings and audiences after just seven days of delayed viewing. Those kinds of strong gains could very well be enough to secure “Emergence” a second season.

With that being said, the series hasn’t been performing quite as well as fellow freshman drama, “Stumptown,” which has both a slightly higher L+SD average (0.65) and is pulling in the biggest delayed viewing gains of any of this fall’s rookie titles. As a result, if ABC were to renew only one of those two shows, based solely on their DVR performances, he’d lean towards it being “Stumptown.”

So, for now, the Bear is calling “Emergence” a likely cancellation, but don’t be surprised if he decides to move it back into tossup or likely renewal territory sometime in the coming weeks.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2020
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2020
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2020
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2020
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2020

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2019-20 season, replacement level is a 0.5 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.5 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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