Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 4 of the 2017-18 season. A second-year show needs to find its footing.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Middle Final season 1.43 0.73
Scandal (O) Final season 1.23 0.53
Ten Days in the Valley 🐻 🐻 0.43 -0.27
Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.17
Once Upon a Time (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.63 0.2
Inhumans (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.65 0.23
The Mayor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.0 0.3
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.2 0.5
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.25
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.93 0.23
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.53
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.45 0.75
The Good Doctor 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.1 1.4
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.17 1.47
The Goldbergs Renewed 1.6 0.90
Modern Family Renewed 1.88 1.18

 

There’s a decent chance “Designated Survivor” will limp into a third season on ABC. Heaven knows the network has dragged underperforming dramas (looking at you, “Quantico”) at least that far in recent years.

But the show’s failure to find its floor so far this fall has got to be worrying. It’s also the reason the Bear is, for now at least, booting “Designated Survivor” out of the likely renewal club and down to a tossup.

After two weeks at 0.9 in adults 18-49, the show hit a series low of 0.8 last week. That means three of the four times it’s been under 1.0 have been in the past three weeks.

It’s not a great trend line, and if it keeps going that way ABC might have to seriously consider cutting short Tom Kirkman’s term.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2018
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2018

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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