Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 5 of the 2018-19 season. They don’t bode well for one sophomore comedy.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Speechless (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.47||0.07|
|Splitting Up Together||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.80||0.20|
|The Rookie (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.90||0.30|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.76||0.16|
|Fresh Off the Boat (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.57||0.22|
|A Million Little Things (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.86||0.26|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.95||0.35|
|Station 19 (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.03||0.43|
|Single Parents||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.06||0.46|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.08||0.48|
|The Good Doctor||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.18||0.58|
|The Kids Are Alright (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.25||0.65|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.28||0.68|
|Modern Family||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.44||0.84|
|The Conners||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.05||1.45|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.63||1.03|
All of the ABC comedies that premiered in week 4 took predictable hits in their second weeks, but still managed to put up OK numbers – except for “Splitting Up Together.”
The network’s sophomore comedy has been noticeably down from its first season, and hit another series low last week, after dropping two-tenths from its season 2 premiere. Apart from the network’s TGIF comedies, it’s currently ABC’s lowest-rated scripted series, and without the added advantage of being owned by ABC, has gotten itself off to an inauspicious (at best) start this season.
Right now, the Bear is letting it stay as a tossup, but unless the show can start to turn things around, he doesn’t see much chance “Splitting Up Together” will be returning for a third season.
“The Conners” also fell multiple tenths from its premiere, but is still ABC’s highest-rated show of the season so far, and remains a likely bet for renewal. However, should the “Roseanne” spin-off’s ratings continue to fall, that could very easily change.
The same goes for “The Kids Are Alright,” which is off to good start on the network, and could prove to be a fine lead-out for “The Conners” Tuesday nights, but only if both shows can manage to level out a little moving forwards.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2019|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2019|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.