ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 5 of the 2016-17 season ponders just why the network would leave a promising show on the shelf for so long between seasons.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Secrets and Lies (O)||🐻 🐻||0.88||0.18|
|Dr. Ken (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.86||0.53|
|Quantico (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.9||0.2|
|Last Man Standing (F)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.87|
|The Real O’Neals (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.05||0.35|
|Agents of SHIELD (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.9||0.2|
|Once Upon a Time (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.14||0.44|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.24||0.54|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.45||0.75|
|The Middle||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.65||0.95|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.8||1.1|
|The Goldbergs||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.9||1.2|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.85||1.15|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.8||1.1|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.26||1.56|
|Modern Family||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||2.38||1.68|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.73||1.0|
“The Walking Dead” surely played some part in driving “Secrets and Lies” to its lowest rating ever on Sunday. But when the show’s canceled, the culprit will be ABC, not AMC.
Season 1 of the show was a pleasant (albeit mild) surprise at the tail end of the 2014-15 season. It pulled steady mid-1 ratings in adults 18-49 and hit a season high with its finale. The idea that most of the cast would turn over between seasons, and there’d be a new case to solve, was baked into the premise of the show, but a quick-enough turnaround with that new cast and case might have given the show’s second season a fighting chance, had it aired in 2015-16.
But it didn’t. For whatever reason, ABC sat on “Secrets and Lies” until this fall. It premiered 16 months and 22 days after its most recent episode. That was an eternity on broadcast TV even before the days when there 400 other scripted shows to fill people’s time. Now, it’s pretty much suicide for a broadcast network to try to schedule something this way.
“Secrets and Lies” is downgraded to likely cancellation, and ABC has only itself to blame.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.