ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 7 of the 2016-17 season sees a shaky renewal decision not panning out terribly well.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious DSW 0.91 0.21
Conviction (O) 🐻 0.8 0.1
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.78 0.08
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.85 0.52
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.78 0.08
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.87
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.17
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.1 0.4
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.53
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.55 0.85
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 0.98
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.88 1.18
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.82 1.12
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 0.98
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.23 1.53
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.36 1.66
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.72 1.02

 

“The Real O’Neals” was renewed despite pretty thin ratings last season, as ABC took a chance on a marginally rated show it owned, presumably hoping it would build on its first season.

From a ratings perspective, that hasn’t happened. The show hasn’t budged from its Season 1 ratings — it’s at 0.98 in adults 18-49, vs. 0.97 for the episodes that aired in its regular Tuesday spot last season. ABC hasn’t exactly shown a ton of confidence in the show either, giving it just three extra episodes for this season rather than a full back-nine pickup. It’s the lowest-rated of ABC’s Tuesday and Wednesday comedies by a good margin.

Yet the Bear is leaving it as a tossup for now. The show that replaces it early next year — either “Imaginary Mary” or “Downward Dog” — will have to make its case in the lower-TV-use springtime, and the network doesn’t even know yet what goods it has in terms of comedy development.

But it’s a soft tossup, and unless something changes a downgrade to likely cancellation may not be far in the future.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

  • http://foolishwatcher.com/2016/11/09/i-dont-know-how-to-process-anything-right-now-so-lets-talk-about-tv-news-and-pretend-that-everything-is-ok/ I don’t know how to process anything right now so let’s talk about TV news and pretend that everything is OK. – foolish watcher

    […] terms of everyone else’s chances for renewal or cancellation: The Real O’Neals are in trouble; it doesn’t seem that CBS has much faith in Code Black — and when you name a show that, […]

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