ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 8 of the 2016-17 season welcome another Dead Show Walking to the Bear’s table.

Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
Notorious DSW 0.91 0.21
Conviction (O) DSW 0.76 0.06
Secrets and Lies (O) 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
Dr. Ken (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.86 0.53
Quantico (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.77 0.07
Last Man Standing (F) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.11 0.89
The Real O’Neals (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.98 0.28
Agents of SHIELD (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.87 0.17
Once Upon a Time (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.08 0.38
How to Get Away with Murder (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.53
Fresh Off the Boat 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.3 0.6
The Middle 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.55 0.85
American Housewife (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 0.98
The Goldbergs 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.9 1.2
Speechless 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.8 1.1
Designated Survivor (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.60 0.90
Grey’s Anatomy (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.19 1.49
Modern Family 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 2.35 1.65
Black-ish (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.68 0.98

 

The Bear will not be feeding exclusively on ABC shows this season. It just seems that way at the moment.

Last week “Conviction” became the second Dead Show Walking of the season when ABC said it would not take the series past its initial 13-episode order. It follows “Notorious,” which had its order cut to 10 episodes, into DSW territory.

The news on “Conviction” comes as no surprise to the Bear, which had the show rated as a sure bet to be canceled prior to the announcement. Its ratings are barely above replacement level and 30 percent below those of “Castle” in the same spot last season. A place at the Bear’s table is set.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2017
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2017

 

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

 Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:Rick Porter

Rick Porter has been covering TV since the days when networks sent screeners on VHS, one of which was a teaser for the first season of "American Idol." He's left-handed, makes a very solid grilled cheese and has been editor of TV by the Numbers since October 2015. He lives in Austin.

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