Here are ABC’s renew/cancel standings for week 9 of the 2017-18 season. A second-year show gets a downgrade.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|The Middle||Final season||1.35||0.65|
|Scandal (O)||Final season||1.16||0.46|
|Ten Days in the Valley||DSW||0.43||-0.27|
|Kevin (Probably) Saves the World (O)||🐻 🐻||0.76||0.06|
|Once Upon a Time (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.56||0.10|
|Inhumans (F) (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.59||0.14|
|The Mayor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.84||0.14|
|Fresh Off the Boat||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.1||0.4|
|How to Get Away with Murder (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||0.93||0.23|
|Designated Survivor (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻||0.84||0.14|
|Speechless||🐻 🐻 🐻||1.16||0.46|
|Black-ish (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.17||0.47|
|American Housewife (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.37||0.67|
|The Good Doctor||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.98||1.28|
|Grey’s Anatomy (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.97||1.27|
The Bear has had “Speechless” as a likely renewal since the start of the season. That changes now.
The show currently sits in the middle of ABC’s comedy pack, but it’s the lowest-rated member of the Wednesday block by a good margin. Its adults 18-49 ratings are down a hefty 35 percent vs. this time last season.
The Bear’s credo is that shows only need to outrun lower-rated series on their network, and “Speechless” is definitely ahead of some others. But its declines in Season 2, plus the fact that it’s from an outside studio, make its position a little bit precarious. Hence “Speechless” is now a tossup for next season.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2018|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2018|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.