Here are CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 11 of the 2018-19 season, and why the third season rule easily keeps “MacGyver” as a likely renewal.

Show Status 18-49 rating Renew/Cancel Index
The Big Bang Theory Final season 2.24 1.64
Happy Together (O) DSW 0.88 0.28
Murphy Brown DSW 0.88 0.28
Madam Secretary (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.59 -0.01
S.W.A.T. 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.73 0.13
Criminal Minds 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.74 0.14
SEAL Team (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.83 0.23
Magnum P.I. 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.88 0.28
Bull (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.81 0.21
NCIS: Los Angeles (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.89 0.29
NCIS: New Orleans (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.89 0.29
God Friended Me 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.95 0.35
MacGyver (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.71 0.42
FBI 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.07 0.47
The Neighborhood (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.10 0.50
Hawaii Five-O (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.80 0.54
Blue Bloods (F) (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 0.82 0.57
Mom 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.23 0.63
NCIS (O) 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.30 0.70
Young Sheldon 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 1.72 1.12

 

“MacGyver” has experienced a small drop between its second and third seasons, with a 0.71 average rating vs. last year’s 0.83 average, and it is CBS’ lowest-rated Friday primetime show. But despite all that, “MacGyver” is still very, very likely to be renewed for a fourth season.

The Bear’s third season rule means that, barring any sudden, huge ratings declines, there’s almost no way “MacGyver” won’t be returning next year. The show has only suffered a 0.12 drop in 18-49 between seasons, is CBS-owned, and close enough to a syndication deal for CBS to keep it around, even if only so it can reach that milestone.

He forgot to mention it last week too, but the Bear is also calling “Happy Together” and “Murphy Brown” dead shows walking, with CBS deciding against ordering additional episodes from either shows.

After their equally disappointing performances in the ratings this fall, that decision didn’t come as much of a surprise, even with a 13-episode season having always been the plan for “Murphy Brown.” No official cancellation announcements have been made yet regarding either show, but the Bear considers it only a matter of time at this point.

Key:

DSW Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing
🐻 sure bet to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 likely to be canceled by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 likely to be renewed by May 2019
🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 sure bet to be renewed by May 2019

The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2018-19 season, replacement level is a 0.6 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.1 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.6 (or 0.1) from a show’s average same-day rating.

Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number.

Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.

(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.

Posted by:The Cancel Bear

The Cancel Bear is a bear who tracks and devours low-rated TV shows.

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