CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 28 of the 2016-17 season have a first-year comedy in safe territory.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Elementary (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||-0.03|
|Code Black (O)||🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|The Odd Couple (O)||🐻 🐻||1.01||0.31|
|Ransom (Sat.)||🐻 🐻||0.43||-0.09|
|Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (O)||🐻 🐻||0.88||0.18|
|Life in Pieces||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Criminal Minds (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.39||0.69|
|Blue Bloods (F) (O)||Renewed||1.19||1.00|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O)||Renewed||1.2||1.02|
|MacGyver (F) (O)||Renewed||1.1||0.87|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (O)||Renewed||1.37||0.67|
|2 Broke Girls||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Man with a Plan (O)||Renewed||1.3||0.6|
|Superior Donuts (O)||Renewed||1.28||0.58|
|The Great Indoors (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.49||0.79|
|Kevin Can Wait (O)||Renewed||1.70||1.00|
|The Big Bang Theory||Renewed||3.23||2.53|
|Madam Secretary (O)||Renewed||0.94||0.24|
|NCIS: New Orleans (O)||Renewed||1.2||0.5|
One of the more head-scratching exclusions from CBS’ long list of renewals a couple weeks ago was “The Great Indoors.” The odds here still have it as a likely renewal.
True, the comedy hasn’t been great at retaining its “Big Bang Theory” lead-in, typically losing about half the 18-49 audience. That’s on par with what “Life in Pieces” did in the post-“Big Bang” slot last season, and the flow through the rest of the comedy block hasn’t really been disrupted. “Mom,” for instance, is actually a little better off relative to CBS’ scripted average than it was last season.
“The Great Indoors” is also the network’s No. 3-rated comedy behind “Big Bang” and “Kevin Can Wait.” Four sitcoms with softer numbers have already been renewed for 2017-18; “The Great Indoors” should join them by May.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.