CBS’ renew/cancel standings for week 29 of the 2016-17 season look at another show CBS has yet to decide on for next season.
Here are the standings, and here’s an explanation of the Bear’s methodology.
|Show||Status||18-49 rating||Renew/Cancel Index|
|Elementary (O)||🐻 🐻||0.67||-0.03|
|Training Day (some Sat.)||🐻||0.7||0.0|
|Code Black (O)||🐻 🐻||0.97||0.27|
|The Odd Couple (O)||🐻 🐻||1.01||0.31|
|Ransom (Sat.)||🐻 🐻||0.43||-0.09|
|Criminal Minds: Beyond Borders (O)||🐻 🐻||0.84||0.14|
|Life in Pieces||Renewed||1.29||0.59|
|Criminal Minds (O)||Renewed||1.38||0.68|
|Blue Bloods (F) (O)||Renewed||1.18||0.99|
|Hawaii Five-0 (F) (O)||Renewed||1.19||1.00|
|MacGyver (F) (O)||Renewed||1.09||0.86|
|NCIS: Los Angeles (O)||Renewed||1.35||0.65|
|2 Broke Girls||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.33||0.63|
|Man with a Plan (O)||Renewed||1.3||0.6|
|Superior Donuts (O)||Renewed||1.28||0.58|
|The Great Indoors (O)||🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||1.49||0.79|
|Kevin Can Wait (O)||Renewed||1.70||1.00|
|The Big Bang Theory||Renewed||3.21||2.51|
|Madam Secretary (O)||Renewed||0.93||0.23|
|NCIS: New Orleans (O)||Renewed||1.19||0.49|
The Bear’s continuing “what about this show that wasn’t on the CBS early renewal list?” series continues this week with “2 Broke Girls.” Like “Criminal Minds” (told you so) and “The Great Indoors” before it, the Bear still predicts “2 Broke Girls” will be back for 2017-18.
The veteran show’s ratings are on par with those of three CBS comedies that have already been renewed (“Life in Pieces,” “Man with a Plan” and “Superior Donuts”). It also has a very robust syndication deal.
That deal doesn’t benefit CBS directly, since it doesn’t own the show. But it creates incentive for Warner Bros., which does own “2 Broke Girls,” to make a deal to keep it on the air for another season, taking it up to or beyond the 150-episode mark.
|DSW||Dead Show Walking: All but officially canceled yet still airing|
|🐻||sure bet to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻||likely to be canceled by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻||tossup between renewal and cancellation by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||likely to be renewed by May 2017|
|🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻 🐻||sure bet to be renewed by May 2017|
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.