The broadcast networks will present their 2018-19 lineups to advertisers the week of May 14. Ahead of that, the Bear makes his last predictions for renewal or cancellation for shows still in limbo. Nearly every such show will have its future determined in the next few days.
Per usual, CBS has already picked up a sizable number of shows. Odds for the remaining ones, featuring good chances for “Instinct” and “Life in Pieces” and bad ones for “9JKL” and “Superior Donuts,” are below. The “Status” column will be updated as decisions are announced.
|Show||Renew/Cancel Index||Renewal chances||Status|
|9JKL (O)||0.27||10%||Canceled 5/12|
|Superior Donuts (O)||0.19||13%||Canceled 5/12|
|Code Black (O)||0.0||51%||Canceled 5/24|
|Scorpion (O)||0.12||65%||Canceled 5/12|
|Instinct (O)||0.11||67%||Renewed 5/12|
|Criminal Minds (O)||0.29||75%||Renewed 5/12|
|Man with a Plan (O)||0.3||75%||Renewed 5/12|
|Life in Pieces||0.42||80%||Renewed 5/12|
|Kevin Can Wait (O)||0.48||90%||Canceled 5/12|
A couple of notes: As the Bear stated a couple weeks ago, he’s not wasting any mental energy on “Ransom.” There’s also no prediction for “Elementary,” which has just one episode in the books at posting time and is for all intents a summer show this year, but the show has been renewed (see link above).
Already renewed: “The Big Bang Theory,” “Blue Bloods,” “Bull,” “Hawaii Five-0,” “MacGyver,” “Madam Secretary,” “Mom,” “NCIS,” “NCIS: Los Angeles,” “NCIS: New Orleans,” “SEAL Team,” “SWAT,” “Young Sheldon”
Already canceled: “Living Biblically,” “Me, Myself & I,” “Wisdom of the Crowd”
The Renew/Cancel Index is the amount above (or below) a replacement-level rating — i.e., the expected adults 18-49 rating of an emergency fill-in show should a series be canceled. For the 2016-17 season, replacement level is a 0.7 same-day rating in adults 18-49 for the Big 4 networks and a 0.2 for The CW. (Read more here.) The index number is taken by subtracting 0.7 (or 0.2) from a show’s average same-day rating.
Friday scripted shows (denoted with an “F” above) on the Big 4 have average ratings about 30 percent lower than those of other nights, therefore their ratings are multiplied by 1.43 (1/0.7, or 70 percent) before subtracting the replacement-level number. Any scripted show on Saturdays will use the same formula.
Shows that have ended their seasons have their R/C Index number frozen at the point of their final episode.
(O) – Owned: All other things equal, shows owned by studios affiliated with their networks have a better shot at renewal than those from outside producers.